Updated: July 6th, 2018
 


 

 
Closing Prices:
DEC. 2018 CORN $3.73
NOV. 2018 SOYBEANS $ 8.94
SEPT 2018 KC WHEAT $ 5.13
Weekly Change: Corn finished up 2 cents for the week, Soybeans finished up 15, and Wheat finished the week 26 higher.. 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We need help!

 

Do you know of someone looking for a career working with ag producers and a passion for the markets? If so, we’d like to hear from them.  AgWest is currently looking for a few good folks that can help service the growing demands from our farming partners.  Currently we have the below openings:

For more details and to submit an application, please click on the link below.

Crop Conditions

 

 

 

Wheat Harvest Progress

 

 

Let The Trade Wars Begin

 

It appears that whatever good-faith trade negotiations that had been taking place between China and the U.S. have failed. At midnight last night, U.S. tariffs on various Chinese imports were implemented. The expected retaliation was immediate with Beijing initiating their own tariffs on an equal amount of American goods, including soybeans, corn, pork and poultry. According to Chinese officials, President Xi Jinping has instructed various levels of his government to get ready for an all-out trade war. It is interesting to note that soybean futures started Friday’s session with double digit-gains. Could this turn out to be a classic sell the rumor, buy the fact scenario? Time will tell, but for now it appears both sides (China & U.S.) are digging in for the long haul.   

 

And You Thought You Had A Tough Week

 

Hail storms happen every year in some isolated areas. If you have been farming for a number of years, you have likely felt the knot in your stomach after Mother Nature messes with your crop. There is, no doubt, other areas in our trade territory that have recently suffered adverse weather, but it doesn’t get much worse than this. The picture below was taken between Holdrege and Loomis, NE, after a Saturday evening storm rolled through the area. The good news is that combine wear and tear will be minimized in 2018. If damage is bad enough that an adjuster can handle the insurance claim with a 50 mph drive-by, that is not necessarily a bad thing.

Drought Monitor Improves

 

Although slight, both the area (size) and severity of drought in the U.S. growing region shrank in the last month. At first glance of these map comparisons, one may think there is nothing to see here so just move along. That said, and it should not go unnoticed that there is a slight improvement in drought areas as we move into the gut of the growing season…into summer heat and a period that typically delivers less rainfall. So what is the takeaway? With the vast majority of the Corn Belt in good shape concerning soil moisture profiles, and the areas that are short actually showing some improvement, it would take a dramatic weather shift to change the trajectory of the 2018 corn crop. Soybeans need more time and some decent weather in August, so that story has a few more chapters to write, but this year’s corn crop will soon be making the last turn into the home stretch.  

July WASDE Reports

 

Next Thursday, the USDA will deliver new balance sheets for the grains. Heading into 2018, the corn market appeared to have the best shot at tightening balances sheets and changing market structure. So at mid-summer, where are we at with that thought?  Next week’s report will likely reflect the acreage increase from the late June “Acreage Report” and may well have a slight bump in yield projections. No one knows what Mother Nature delivers for the balance of the growing season, but here is a scenario that didn’t seem possible just a few weeks back. Consider this…

 

 

Ending corn stocks for the 2018/19 marketing year could once again land north of two billion bushels. Leading into yet another year with a burdensome inventory is certainly not what was expected coming off this crop, but the path to how that could happen is becoming more clear. Again, there is plenty of growing season left and a lot can still happen but the above scenario is now fully on the table. 

 

July 4th Trend Change

 

History shows a strong tendency for trends to change or escalate around Independence Day. This typically happens within a week to 10 days either side of the July 4th holiday. Topping action is more prevalent during this timeframe and those tops are most often followed by severe price declines. July 4th market tops will obviously not be the case in 2018 so if there is an annual trend change this year, here are the choices…

 

 

If 2018 doesn’t deliver one of the infamous trend changes, the row crop markets may just shift into a range-bound, consolidation type of trade. So there you have it…the grain markets going forward will trade higher, OR lower, OR move into a range-bound trade. What’s so difficult about this marketing thing?

 

 

 
 
Have a great week!