Stewart-Peterson Market Commentary

Closing Commentary - July 27, 2017

Top Farmer Midday Update 7-27-17

CORN:Corn futures are quietly trading close to where they opened, up 3 cents to 3.89 in the Dec contract. That contract’s 100-day moving average is acting as a magnet for price after support held in the previous session. This morning’s Weekly Export Sales were 92,000 tons (3.6 mil bu) for old crop, 486,600 tons (19 mil bu) for new crop. The data was largely expected albeit a little low for old crop and, higher for new crop. The dollar is up, but solidly entrenched in a down-trend after making new lows overnight, offering commodities outside-market support. In addition, the Aug (USDA) crop report is widely expected to see a downgrade to this year’s crop production figure that was left unchanged at 170.7 bpa in the July forecast. This is helping prices hang around their 100-day and avoid making new lows. Weather-wise, The Midwest U.S. turns dry in most areas tomorrow, the weekend, and much of next week; light rains at the end of next week is seen favoring IL, IN, and OH with below average temps for the weekend and first half of next week, average temps for the middle of the week, then back to below average.

SOYBEANS:Soybean futures rallied 12-1/4 cents in early dealings before trimming gains. Nov beans are up 6 cents to 10.06-1/4. Weekly export data was supportive, as well as a morning export announcement featuring a 264,000 ton (9.7 mil bu) bean sale to an unknown destination. Of the total, 198,000 tons (7.25 mil bu) is earmarked for old crop supplies. Weekly Export Sales were 303,400 tons (11 mil bu) for old crop and, 531,800 tons (19.5 mil bu) for new crop.

WHEAT:Wheat futures are up at all three exchanges. Sep CBOT wheat is up 5 to 4.82-3/4; KC up 6-1/2 to 4.81-1/2, and MPLS up 8 cents to 7.38. Support stems from a spring wheat crop tour confirming lower yield prospects in central and northwest North Dakota vs year-ago numbers following hot and dry conditions during this growing season; the Wheat Quality Council tour calculated an average yield at 35.8 bpa, on the second day of a three-day tour; the figure compares with the 2016 Day Two yield of 46.9 bpa and the five-year average of 46.6 bpa. Weekly Export Sales were 498,000 tons (18.3 mil bu). The figure is deemed neutral for the market but, new lows in the dollar is supportive. In other tender activity, Jordan passed on a 100,000 ton optional-origin wheat tender.

CATTLE:Cattle futures are mostly steady, consolidating in the absence of market-moving news. Cash this week looks to show signs of bottoming after retreating early summer. Futures are trading in similar fashion, mostly sideways with a long-term higher bias. Aug live cattle are down .175 to 114.125. Oct is up .125 to 113.500. Aug feeders are up .300 to 146.775, nearly 1.000 off their session high while trading an ‘inside day’.

HOGS:Hog futures remain in the red at mid-session, weighed by today’s cash markets being down .50 to 1.00/cwt. Aug hogs are down .375 to 81.625, trading an ‘inside day’. Oct is down .475 to 67.175.

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