Updated: September 20th, 2019
  
Closing Prices:
DEC. 2019 CORN $ 3.71
NOV. 2019 SOYBEANS $ 8.82
JULY 2020 KC WHEAT $ 4.40
 
Weekly Change: Corn finished 3 higher for the week, Soybeans finished down 16, and Wheat finished up 6 for the week.  

 

 

 

We need help!

Do you know of someone looking for a career working with ag producers and a passion for the markets? If so, we’d like to hear from them.  AgWest is currently looking for a few good folks that can help service the growing demands from our farming partners.  Currently we have the below openings:

  • Broker & Broker Assistant at our Yuma, CO, and Beresford, SD locations

For more details and to submit an application, please click HERE.


Crop Conditions – Week Ending September 15th

 

CORN:  Last Monday the nation’s corn remained at 55% Good/Excellent which compares to 68% on the same date last year.

 

SOYBEANS: The bean’s crop rating dropped a point to 54% Good/Excellent and that compares to 67% last year on the same date.

 

Crop Progress – Week Ending September 15th

 

CORN: 4% of the nation’s corn crop has been harvested compared to the five-year average of 7% on the same date.

 

SOYBEANS: 15% of the crop is dropping leaves which compares to the five-year average on the same date at 50%.

 

SPRING WHEAT: 76% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested compared to the five-year average at 93% done.

 

Ho Hum Markets

 

The corn and soybean markets have slipped into directionless, uninspired trade again this week. It appears to be a wait and see affair for the meantime. Wait and see if an arctic blast arrives in time to prematurely shut down a portion of the late planted crop. Wait and see what the combine monitors have to say about this crop. Speaking of that, we did receive a number of harvest reports from our five-state trade territory this week and, for the most part, the results are good to very good. That will not be the case everywhere in the country, or at all times this fall, so both the “bulls” and the “bears” will have something to cheer about. Once we hit the gut of harvest the trade will have ample yield information to make further assessments and the markets will trade accordingly. Time will tell!

 

2020 Corn Opportunities

 

Many folks have initial 2020 corn sales in place, but whether you do or do not, it is time to have at least a couple of “NEXT” sales targets determined and orders working. Why now? Why so early? There are several analysts talking about high odds of a ton of corn acres in 2020. Unless something changes with the price relationship between new crop (2020) corn and soybeans, it is almost a given that corn will win the acreage contest. If you are not currently concerned with 2020 pricing opportunities, take a look at the corn balance sheet below that shows various yield assumptions for next year’s crop. This balance sheet assessment is furnished by the Hightower Report, a well-known and highly respected commodity analytics group that serves clients world-wide.

 

Things of note in the balance sheet projection…

 

  • The only thing they have changed in each of the three scenarios is the yield.
  • Demand has been trimmed slightly from the 2019/20 crop year.
  • The corn market would most likely be trading considerably south of the $4.00 mark even if the lowest of the scenarios were to unfold.

 

In short order you are going to be preoccupied with that thing called harvest. Pricing new crop corn or beans will not be a front-burner item on your list. Get with your Cash Advisor or Broker and get at least a couple of 2020 corn targets established… then get the appropriate orders working.

Keep this in mind while making your decisions…

 

  • If you have storage, starting with a $4.00+ December 2020 futures sale can easily turn into north of $4.00 cash corn in the end, depending on your local basis. 

As always, you want your first sales to ultimately become your worst sales. It would not be a bad thing to call current prices your worst sales in 2020!

What About Soybeans

 

Unlike corn, the current 2020 November Soybean futures are not providing immediate opportunity. That said, you will be too busy for several weeks to devote time to your next year’s marketing plans. Therefore, get with your Cash Advisor or Broker and make some decisions. There is no reason to not have at least a couple of price targets determined and working. Working targets lay in wait for the opportunity to arise. Make some decisions and get those orders in place. It is time!

Cattle on Feed

 

United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent

 

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.0 million head on September 1, 2019. The inventory was 1 percent below September 1, 2018.

 

Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.88 million head, 9 percent below 2018. Net placements were 1.82 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 385,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 300,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 424,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 440,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 230,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 105,000 head.

 

Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.95 million head, 2 percent below 2018.

 

Other disappearance totaled 61,000 head during August, 11 percent above 2018.

 

 

Have a great week!

 

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS WHICH MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. HOWEVER, THE RISK INVOLVED WITH PURCHASING OPTIONS IS LIMITED TO THE PREMIUM PAID PLUS TRANSACTION COSTS. THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A SALES OR TRADING EMPLOYEE OR AGENT OF AGWEST AND IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION. THIS MATERIAL IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT PREPARED BY AGWEST. IF YOU ARE NOT AN EXPERIENCED USER OF THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS, CAPABLE OF MAKING INDEPENDENT TRADING DECISIONS, THEN YOU SHOULD NOT RELY SOLELY ON THIS COMMUNICATION IN MAKING TRADING DECISIONS
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