Cattle Markets Rally to New Highs
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August Feeder Cattle opened higher and made the low at 323.45. The low tested support at the rising 8-DMA now at 323.95 and it held, sending price higher the rest of the session to the high at 328.175. The rally to the high is a new all-time high for the lead contract. It also is a break out from the consolidation band the Feeder market has been in since making the prior all-time high on July 10th at 326.875. The low of the range is from the same day at 318.65. The strength in futures comes about as the Feeder Cattle Index is making new all-time highs yet again. After the close the index came out and it jumped over 3 bucks to 325.80 taking out the previous all-time high established on 7/11/2025 at 323.37. Futures are trading at a slight premium to the index as expectations are for the index to keep moving higher. Various reports show feeder weight cattle through all weight classes continue to make new highs as feedlots/ producers (grass) compete for limited supplies of cattle. There wasn’t any follow-through to the rumor last week on the screwworm appearing in Texas. This could have been another attempt to spook traders and try to knock cattle prices lower as there isn’t any information appearing in print (at least I haven’t seen anything) pushing “false” information through hearsay. How long can this last? We’ll see!... A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support at the 8-DMA. Support then comes in at 321.00. If settlement holds, price could test resistance pivot resistance at 329.50. R2 is at 331.20 and R3 is at 334.25.
The Feeder Cattle Index jumped and is at 325.80 as of 07/18/2025.
October Live Cattle is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the August contract. It opened unchanged, traded to the low at 219.10. The breakdown pushed through support at the rising 13-DMA now at 219.875 on the continuous chart, then reversing and rallying to the high at 222.075. The rally stalled just above the rising 8-DMA now at 221.975. The high is a new high for the October contract, but October is trading below the August contract, leaving the all-time high untouched for the lead contract. That high was established on Friday at 224.55. Traders started the week enthused that the packer should not be able to knock cash prices lower this week. The packer is losing money and is desperate to pressure the cattle market. They are expected to slow slaughter again this week as analysts are saying we are looking at 560,000 to sub-560,000 for the week. They also say the packer bought enough cattle with time to try to break the market. That is a refrain they repeatedly have used to no avail to say the market has topped. Cutouts continue their seasonal decline adding to the topping talk. The truth is we don’t know if cash prices have peaked (at least for the summer) as producers feel they don’t have to sell their cattle at packer prices. They will sell if they want to not because they are forced too as the packer repeatedly have shown they will eventually cave. Cash has already traded this week as the packer purchased some heifers at 238.00. This is a good start to the week for the producer, in my opinion. This is higher than the steer cash average for last week at 237.78. If they are buying cattle at higher prices this early, how much will they pay for cattle at the end of the week? We’ll see!... A failure from settlement could see price test support at 220.05. The rising 13-DMA is nearby. Support then comes in at 218.625. If price can hold settlement, it could test resistance at 223.275. The all-time high is next at 224.55. Resistance then comes in at pivot resistance at R3 at 225.725.
Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts decreased 1.48 to 372.07 and select decreased 1.44 to 350.05. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 22.02 and the load count was 75.
Monday’s estimated slaughter is 105,000, which is below last week’s 112,000 and last year’s 113,887.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Monday, negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on moderate demand in all feeding regions. The last established market in the Texas Panhandle was last week at 230.00. The last established market in Kansas was last week from 230.00-231.00. The last established market in Nebraska was last week with live purchases at 240.00 and dressed purchases at 380.00. The last established market in the Western Cornbelt was last week with live purchases at mostly 240.00 and dressed purchases at 380.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle at 238.00 and nothing on a dressed basis (so far).
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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